The tropical Atlantic Ocean could come back to life next week after a quiet spell.
Hurricane watchers have been buzzing about the possibility of a developing system in the Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center joined in on Friday, adding an area to watch to its tropical outlook (see the map at the top of this post).
Right now the area to watch has a low chance of development. But if it did begin to organize the expected track would be of concern to those in the Caribbean — and potentially the United States.
The hurricane center said on Friday afternoon that an area of disturbed weather in the central Atlantic could merge with a tropical wave over the next few days.
Forecasters said some development will be possible as the system tracks to the west-northwest toward the Lesser Antilles. It could be near the Greater Antilles by the end of next week.
As of Friday afternoon the system had only a 20 percent probability of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next seven days.
The tropical Atlantic has been very quiet since Hurricane Beryl dissipated earlier this month. Part of the reason for the lack of activity is Saharan dust, which has been a near-constant presence over part of the basin over the past few weeks.
But August typically brings an big uptick in tropical activity, and the climatological peak of the season falls on Sept. 10:
The tropics usually start to get busier in August, and this year could be no exception.Courtesy National Hurricane Center
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is still expected to be a very busy one. NOAA forecasters think 17-25 named storms will be possible before the season’s official end on Nov. 30.
This year has already entered the record books. Hurricane Beryl briefly attained Category 5 status on July 1 and became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic.
There have been two other named storms so far this year — Alberto and Chris. Both were tropical storms, and both struck Mexico’s Gulf Coast.
